Research
Imagine a future where every individual has an AI assistant built into their health record: explaining test results and treatment plans, suggesting next steps, surfacing possible medical errors before they are propagated, and coordinating care and improving communication between the patient and their care team.
Realizing this vision requires fundamental advances in machine learning, causal inference, and human-AI interaction. Longitudinal healthcare data is complex, noisy, and prone to shifts in distribution over time, making it difficult to develop safe and effective predictive models. Moreover, prediction is often not enough: Causal questions are also important. For instance, understanding how treatments will affect outcomes can help patients and providers make more informed decisions. Finally, because AI assistants affect healthcare decisions through human-AI interaction, designing this interaction into the AI process is critical.
We strive to address these challenges in our main areas of research laid out below.
- Machine learning on clinical time-series
- Natural language processing
- Probabilistic inference, Graphical Models, and Latent Variables
- Causal inference and prediction
- Human-AI interaction
Machine learning on clinical time-series
Our lab develops algorithms that use data from electronic medical records to make better clinical predictions in areas like antibiotic resistance, cancer, heart failure, lupus, and other chronic illnesses. A key methodological challenge that we study is how to do prediction from multivariate time-series with complex long-range dependencies and substantial missingness, on which existing learning algorithms tend to perform poorly. In addition, we are concerned with efforts around fairness and interpretability to ensure accurate, useful, and equitable clinical predictions.
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I. Chen, R. Krishnan, D. Sontag. Clustering Interval-Censored Time-Series for Disease Phenotyping. Proceedings of the Thirty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2022.
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R. Karlsson, M. Willbo, Z. Hussain, R. Krishnan, D. Sontag. Using Time-Series Privileged Information for Provably Efficient Learning of Prediction Models. Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AI-STATS), 2022.
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Z. Hussain, R. Krishnan, D. Sontag. Neural Pharmacodynamic State Space Modeling. Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2021. [code]
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R. Kodialam, R. Boiarsky, J. Lim, N. Dixit, A. Sai, D. Sontag. Deep Contextual Clinical Prediction with Reverse Distillation. Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2021. [code]
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I. Chen, F. Johansson, D. Sontag. Why is My Classifier Discriminatory?. 32nd International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), December 2018.
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Z. Che, S. Purushotham, K. Cho, D. Sontag, Y. Liu. Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values. Nature Scientific Reports, 2018.
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N. Razavian, S. Blecker, A. Schmidt, A. Smith-McLallen, S. Nigam, D. Sontag. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes using Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors. Big Data, 2016.
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N. Razavian, J. Marcus, D. Sontag. Multi-task Prediction of Disease Onsets from Longitudinal Lab Tests. Proceedings of the 1st Machine Learning for Healthcare Conference (MLHC), 2016. [code]
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Y. Choi, Y. Chiu, D. Sontag. Learning Low-Dimensional Representations of Medical Concepts. Proceedings of the AMIA Summit on Clinical Research Informatics (CRI), 2016.
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X. Wang, D. Sontag, F. Wang. Unsupervised Learning of Disease Progression Models. ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), August 2014. [Slides]
Natural language processing
Many variables useful for clinical research (e.g. disease state, interventions) are trapped in free-text clinical notes. Structuring such variables for downstream use typically involves a tedious process in which domain experts manually search through long clinical timelines. Natural language processing systems present an opportunity for automating this workflow, and our group has developed methods to improve on automated extraction, e.g. via unsupervised learning and hybrid human-AI systems. We are further exploring new paradigms to change electronic health records so we can have cleaner data moving forward.
Advances in NLP Methods:
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H. Lang, M. Agrawal, Y. Kim, D. Sontag. Co-training Improves Prompt-based Learning for Large Language Models. arXiv:2202.00828.
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Y. Kim, Y. Jernite, D. Sontag, A. Rush. Character-aware neural language models. Proceedings of the Thirtieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2016.
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Y. Jernite, A. Rush, D. Sontag. A Fast Variational Approach for Learning Markov Random Field Language Models. Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2016.
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T. Koo, A. Rush, M. Collins, T. Jaakkola, D. Sontag. Dual Decomposition for Parsing with Non-Projective Head Automata. Proceedings of the 2010 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP). Best paper award.
Applications in Healthcare:
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M. Agrawal, H. Lang, M. Offin, L. Gazit, D. Sontag. Leveraging Time Irreversibility with Order-Contrastive Pre-training. Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AI-STATS), 2022.
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M. Alkaitis, M. Agrawal, G. Riely, P. Razavi, D. Sontag. Automated NLP Extraction of Clinical Rationale for Treatment Discontinuation in Breast Cancer. JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics, 2021.
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Y. Halpern, S. Horng, Y. Choi, D. Sontag. Electronic Medical Record Phenotyping using the Anchor and Learn Framework. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association (JAMIA), April 2016. [Supplement] [code]
Probabilistic inference, Graphical Models, and Latent Variables
Probabilistic reasoning is a critical component of clinical machine learning. To reason about complex relationships between diseases and diagnostics, or to jointly infer the meaning of multiple terms in a clinical note, we need efficient procedures for inference to update our beliefs given observed data. We also need models that describe how observations affect our beliefs. Learning these models is challenging, since we have very little access to labeled data (some variables are hidden). Given these challenges, our work on probabilistic inference breaks down into two broad areas: efficient inference algorithms and unsupervised approaches to discovering hidden variables and graphical structure.
Efficient inference:
Unfortunately, performing inference (whether for parameter inference at training time, or answering queries at test time) is often computationally hard, so we focus on approximate inference. Our research in this area builds new approximate inference algorithms and seeks to theoretically understand existing approximations. We focus on both directed and undirected models, ranging from deep generative models, where we showed how to combine Hidden Markov Models with deep neural networks, to Markov Random Fields, where we developed a set of tools for understanding when and why existing approximation algorithms for MAP inference perform well.
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H. Lang, D. Sontag, A. Vijayaraghavan. Graph Cuts Always Find a Global Optimum for Potts Models (With a Catch). Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2021.
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O. Meshi, B. London, A. Weller, D. Sontag. Train and Test Tightness of LP Relaxations in Structured Prediction. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2019.
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R. Krishnan, U. Shalit, D. Sontag. Structured Inference Networks for Nonlinear State Space Models. Proceedings of the Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2017.
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A. Globerson, T. Roughgarden, D. Sontag, C. Yildirim. How Hard is Inference for Structured Prediction. Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2015.
Unsupervised learning & discovery of latent structure:
Can we automatically discover directed relationships between diseases and symptoms? Can we automatically detect new disease phenotypes? How can we best leverage deep generative models to learn complex latent representations of clinical data? Our work in this area focuses on developing efficient algorithms for learning latent variables and network structure from data.
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R.D. Buhai, Y. Halpern, Y. Kim, A. Risteski, D. Sontag. Empirical Study of the Benefits of Overparameterization in Learning Latent Variable Models. Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2021.
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Y. KIm, S. Wiseman, A. Miller, D. Sontag, A. Rush. Semi-Amortized Variational Autoencoders Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2018.
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E. Brenner, D. Sontag. SparsityBoost: A New Scoring Function for Learning Bayesian Network Structure. Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2013.
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Y. Jernite, Y. Halpern, D. Sontag. Discovering Hidden Variables in Noisy-Or Networks using Quartet Tests. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2013.
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S. Arora, R. Ge, Y. Halpern, D. Mimno, A. Moitra, D. Sontag, Y. Wu, M. Zhu. A Practical Algorithm for Topic Modeling with Provable Guarantees. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2013.
Causal inference and prediction
Causal Inference & Policy learning: Many practical questions in healthcare are causal: Which treatments will work best and for which patients? To this end, our lab has developed novel causal inference methods that work well with high-dimensional data and modern machine learning techniques (e.g., neural networks). In addition, we have developed methods for better “debugging” of causal analyses, including helping domain experts assess if causal inference is feasible and whether techniques like reinforcement learning (RL) are working as intended.
Estimation of Causal Effects & Policy Learning:
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I. Demirel, A. Alaa, A. Philippakis, D. Sontag. Prediction-powered Generalization of Causal Inferences Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2024.
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J. Lim, C. X Ji, M. Oberst, S. Blecker, L. Horwitz, D. Sontag. Finding Regions of Heterogeneity in Decision-Making via Expected Conditional Covariance Proceedings of the 35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems., 2021. [code] [video]
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M. Makar, F. Johanssen, J. Guttag, D. Sontag. Estimation of Bounds on Potential Outcomes For Decision Making Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2020. [video]
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M. Oberst, F. Johansson, D. Wei, T. Gao, G. Brat, D. Sontag, K. Varshney. Characterization of Overlap in Observational Studies Proceedings of the Twenty-Third International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2020. [code]
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C. Louizos, U. Shalit, J. Mooij, D. Sontag, R. Zemel, M. Welling. Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2017.
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F. Johansson, U. Shalit, D. Sontag. Estimating individual treatment effect: generalization bounds and algorithms Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2017.
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F. Johansson, U. Shalit, D. Sontag. Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference Proceedings of The 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2016.
Applications of Policy and Reinforcement Learning in Healthcare:
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S. Boominathan, M. Oberst, H. Zhou, S. Kanjilal, D. Sontag. Treatment Policy Learning in Multiobjective Settings with Fully Observed Outcomes. Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2020. [video]
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S. Kanjilal, M. Oberst, S. Boominathan, H. Zhou, D. Hooper, D. Sontag. A Decision Algorithm to Promote Outpatient Antimicrobial Stewardship for Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection. Science Translational Medicine, 2020. [code]
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C. X Ji, M. Oberst, S. Kanjilal, D. Sontag. Trajectory Inspection: A Method for Iterative Clinician-Driven Design of Reinforcement Learning Studies. AMIA 2021 Virtual Informatics Summit, 2021. [video]
Benchmarking observational studies for causal inference: Big observational data from electronic health records and insurance claims present a big opportunity for causal inference, such as enabling the analysis of heterogeneity of effects. However, causal inference from observational data has many pitfalls, which has prevented it from being leveraged to its full potential. Our work pushes the boundaries of assessing the reliability of observational study designs by benchmarking them to small amount of experimental data available, before deploying them in the real-world.
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I. Demirel, E. D. Brouwer, Z. Hussain, M. Oberst, A. Philippakis, D. Sontag. Benchmarking Observational Studies with Experimental Data under Right-Censoring. Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2024.
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Z. Hussain, M. C. Shih, M. Oberst, I. Demirel, D. Sontag. Falsification of Internal and External Validity in Observational Studies via Conditional Moment Restrictions. Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2023.
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Z. Hussain, M. C. Shih, M. Oberst, D. Sontag. Falsification before Extrapolation in Causal Effect Estimation. Proceedings of the 35th Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2022.
Causal Inference & Robust Prediction: Fundamentally, causal inference is about performing prediction in a new distribution (e.g., one in which all patients receive the same treatment). As a result, tools and ideas from causal inference can be readily adapted to the problem of making predictive models more robust to distribution shift.
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M. Oberst, N. Thams, J. Peters, D. Sontag. Regularizing towards Causal Invariance: Linear Models with Proxies. Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2021. [code] [video]
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F. Johansson, R. Ranganath, D. Sontag. Support and Invertibility in Domain-Invariant Representations. Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2019.
Human-AI interaction
The algorithms that we deploy are often used in conjunction with clinical decision makers; they are used to provide a second opinion to the clinician, display information and can sometimes step in to make decisions when resources are limited. Therefore, it is critical when we develop these algorithms that we integrate the human into our design and deployment strategies. We have developed predictors that understand when they should defer to the clinician and when they are able to predict on their own. We have also developed strategies to onboard human users on when to trust our AI algorithms and when not to. As systems begin to include decision support, we have started to quantify the effect of cognitive shortcuts on clinical populations and consider how that should influence system design.
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H. Mozannar, A. Satyanarayan, D. Sontag. Teaching Humans When To Defer to a Classifier via Exemplars. Proceedings of the Thirty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2022. [code]
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L. Murray, D. Gopinath, M. Agrawal, S. Horng, D. Sontag, D. Karger. MedKnowts: Unified Documentation and Information Retrieval for Electronic Health Records. UIST ‘21: The 34th Annual ACM Symposium on User Interface Software and Technology, 2021.
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A. Levy, M. Agrawal, A. Satyanaran, D. Sontag. Assessing the Impact of Automated Suggestions on Decision Making: Domain Experts Mediate Model Errors but Take Less Initiative. CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2021.
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H. Mozannar, D. Sontag. Consistent Estimators for Learning to Defer to an Expert. Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2020.